ABIO10 PGTW 060030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/060030Z-061800ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 
132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 294 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 052124Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZING 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR GENESIS INDICATED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS, 
OFFSET BY VERY WARM (30-31C) SST, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE BEING DIVIDED ON 
TIMELINE; GFS IS AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING GENESIS WITHIN 48 HOURS, WHILE 
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS EXPECT GENESIS OUTSIDE 96 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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