ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-
291800ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 63.3E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 98.9E, APPROXIMATELY 127 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281710Z HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGE DEPICT A 
PARTLY EXPOSED LLC WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 
96S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG 
POLAR OUTFLOW, WARM SST (28-29C) OFFSET BY MEDIUM TO HIGH VWS (20-25 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTH WESTWARD, MOVING INTO AN 
AREA OF LOWER VWS AND MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 63.3E HAS 
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN