ABIO10 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/280230Z-
281800ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 96.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 97.0E, APPROXIMATELY 16 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 271708Z METOP-B 
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT FULLY OBSCURED LLC WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC 
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
96S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLAR
OUTFLOW, WARM SST (28-29C) OFFSET WITH HIGH VWS (25-30 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTH EASTWARD AND MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 63.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH OF PORT MATHURIN,
MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 271708Z METOP-B PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS DEPICT FULLY EXPOSED LLC WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE EAST. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 97S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG
POLAR OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTH WESTWARD AND MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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