ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZMAR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150551ZMAR2023.//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.9S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 170.0W, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90P WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 
HOURS WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 150600) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.6S 165E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 162.2E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 150238Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SLIGHTLY 
DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE 
(15-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK PASSING OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE 
ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE 
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, 
BUT THEY HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER 
NEW CALEDONIA, BEFORE TURNING BACK NORTHWESTWARD AND FIZZLING OUT BY 
TAU 96. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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