WTPS21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130130). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.6W IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.7W, APPROXIMATELY 48 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION, AND A RECENT 132121Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT 
DEPICTS AN AREA OF MOSTLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH 
A REGION OF 20-25 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHERE THE STRONGEST 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT. THE MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NIUE 
AIRPORT AT 140000Z SHOWS WINDS COMING FROM THE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS AND A 
MSLP OF 1010MB. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-
29C) SST. OVERALL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP 
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINLY WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM WITH REACH WARNING 
CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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