ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM 
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION. A 130030Z GMI 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION. 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.6W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM 
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS 
IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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