ABPW10 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130200Z-130600ZMAR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130121ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
14.6S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121438Z AMSR2 36GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITHIN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE 
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C, HOWEVER, FRICTIONAL 
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH VANUATU WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW, ERRATIC SOUTHWARD TO 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 172.0W, 
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION 
OVERHEAD. A 122257Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT 
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG 
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) 
SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE 
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
HIGH. //
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