WTXS31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 060// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 060 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 36.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 36.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.1S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.8S 35.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.8S 35.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 17.0S 35.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 36.8E. 12MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11S MADE LANDFALL AT 11/1800Z APPROXIMATELY 15NM NORTHEAST OF QUELIMANE; UNFORTUNATELY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CEASED AFTER THE 11/1500Z REPORT, WHICH INDICATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 38 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 990MB. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED INLAND WHILE WEAKENING WITH ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CORE CONVECTION AS WELL AS EROSION OF SPIRAL BANDING OVER WATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SEVERAL OPEN-AIIR ESTIMATES NEAR 80 KNOTS. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING DEVELOPS. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT IS CONSISTENT ON THE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD U-TURN. ALL THE CONSENSUS MODELS, HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT TC 11S WILL REMAIN OVER LAND AT LEAST 48 HOURS, AND ALSO SHOW AN EVENTUAL TRACK BACK OVER WATER IN THE TAU 60 TO TAU 84 TIMEFRAME. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM EPS AND GEFS (ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES) LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL REGENERATION OVER WATER WITH THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS OVER WATER IN THE TAU 60 TO TAU 84 TIMEFRAME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// NNNN