WTPS21 PGTW 102330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P) REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZMAR2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9S 165.5W TO 22.4S 161.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 165.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 167.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 165.3W, APPROXIMATELY 473 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 101712Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND A 102039Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 102043Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMATIVE BANDING. INVEST 99P IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE SPCZ AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5- 10KT) VWS AND WARM (27-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 092330). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 112330Z.// NNNN