ABPW10 PGTW 100000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100000Z-100600ZMAR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092321ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.2S 168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM 
EAST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A 091725Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY COMPACT 
SYSTEM, WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION COVERING THE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
AS WELL AS FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES 
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 092103Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY 
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED A LARGE SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS ALONG 
THE WESTERN EDGES AND SMALLER FIELDS OF 25-30 KNOTS NEAR THE POSSIBLE 
LLCC. 99P CONTINUES TO BE DEEPLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ, AND 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TAIL END OF THE STJ TO THE 
SOUTHEAST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS. DUE TO THE RAPID 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG OR WITHIN A SURFACE TROF, WITH THE GFS AND 
NAVGEM BEING THE FRONTRUNNERS. NO MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS 
AVAILABLE, BUT THE GLOBAL GFS AND NAVGEM CONCUR ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
OF THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE EXTREMELY SMALL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE GLOBAL 
FIELDS ARE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP AND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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