ABPW10 PGTW 091730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091730Z-100600ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S 
168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) AND A 091230Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION COVERING 
THE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING 
CREEPING IN TOWARDS THE LLCC. WITH 99P BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ, 
ENVIRONMENTALS ARE WELL WITHIN ITS FAVOR WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TAIL END OF THE STJ TO THE 
SOUTHEAST), AND MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT IN 
FULL AGREEMENT JUST YET ON 99P BUT GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW IT 
CONTINUING ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY 
INTENSIFYING TO A POSSIBLE LOW TIER 40-45KT TC IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA TO PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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