ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZMAR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (KEVIN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.0S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
27.1N 174.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.7S 172.6W, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (JUDY) HAS BEEN 
COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND WILL REMAIN OVER COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040400Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS SHOW A WELL-
DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE 
PARENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST DUE TO INTENSE (60-70 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW TC 15P TRACKING EASTWARD 
WITH LITTLE TO NO FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 48 TO 52 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 985 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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