WTXS21 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 11S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9S 38.4E TO 22.7S 41.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 38.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 11S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 38.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 38.7E. APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE TUCKED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTALS ARE RIPE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 11S WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), LOW VWS (10-15KT), AND NOTEWORTHY EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 11S TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042100Z.// NNNN