ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 11S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.0S 38.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 38.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 031603Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. 
THE REMNANTS OF 11S SIT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE ROBUST 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-
29C) SST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, DETERMINISTIC MODELS, AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 11S WILL HAVE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
PROCESS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S ARE EXPECTED TO 
TAKE AN EASTWARD JOURNEY TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR WHERE IT WILL KISS 
THE COASTLINE BEFORE BACKTRACKING NORTHWEST BACK INTO MOZAMBIQUE IN THE 
COMING DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN