ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-
021800ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 11S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.9S 33.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 35.8E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAXIE, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
011511Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OFFSET IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. 
THE REMNANTS OF 11S HAVE JUST RE-EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND 
INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL HAVE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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