WTPS21 PGTW 011530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 161.0E TO 19.4S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 161.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0S 160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 161.3, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF BLOOMING CONVECTION WITH RAGGED 
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010803Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, 
SOMEWHAT SPIRALING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH 
THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
IMAGERY REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS 
PRESENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. INVEST 96B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A WELL-
DEFINED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE 
INVEST 96P WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS 
IT TRANSITS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
021530Z.
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