ABIO10 PGTW 010630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/010630Z-011800ZMAR2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28FEB23 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
26.6S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 702 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 282100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 11S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S 
33.3E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 010358Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED MASS OF CONVECTION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). JTWC HAS BEEN TRACKING THE REMNANTS OF TC 11S (FREDDY) AS IT HAS 
MEANDERED OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SOUTHEAST ZIMBABWE DURING THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL 
MAKE ITS WAY BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 18-36 
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT VERY 
EXCITED ABOUT TC-STRENGTH REGENERATION, THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS DUE TO 
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS), AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND VERY WARM (29-
30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE REMNANTS OF 11S AS A LOW IN 
PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1).//
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