WTXS31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 044// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 044 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 22.6S 35.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 35.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.7S 33.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.5S 32.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 34.6E. 24FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11S (FREDDY) HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR BAMBE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 241138Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH THICK CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE 241200Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE REPORTED A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM WNW TO NW AT 27 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 37 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PREVIOUS MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TC FREDDY CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12. BY TAU 24, TC FREDDY WILL MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND FURTHER DECREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUAL WESTWARD TRACK, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT AFTER TAU 24. THE NAVGEM TRACKER IS THE OUTLIER WHICH DRIVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12, THEN A DRAMATIC TURN EASTWARD AND BACK OVER WATER BY TAU 48. BECAUSE THIS THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK TO SET TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A DECREASE DUE TO CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN