ABIO10 PGTW 220130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/220130Z-221800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZFEB2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220121ZFEB2023//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22FEB23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.1S 46.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, 
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
85 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 76.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. AN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 212245Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 
DEEP CURVING CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE COMMA CLOUD, FULLY OBSCURING THE 
LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTION 
BANDING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FAVORABLE AT 10-15KT, DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD TOGETHER WITH STRONG 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AT 28-29C PROVIDE 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY 
INDICATES DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 220130) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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