WTXS21 PGTW 220130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 76.1E TO 18.6S 70.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 33 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 75.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 76.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 75.8E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. AN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 212245Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEEP CURVING CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE COMMA CLOUD, FULLY OBSCURING THE LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTION BANDING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FAVORABLE AT 10-15KT, DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD TOGETHER WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AT 28-29C PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230130Z. // NNNN