ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 124.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200130Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS 
REVEALS LOCALIZED 20-25KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT AS A RESULT OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KT) VWS, 
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27C) SSTS. INVEST 99W IS 
STRUGGLING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE 
PRESENCE OF HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND ITS LOCATION 
OVER BORDERLINE COOLER (26-27 C) WATERS ALMOST MAKES THIS A HYBRID SYSTEM 
IN NATURE. IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE INTENSE 
NORTHEAST COLD SURGE WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT, MODERATE (30-35 
KTS) WIND FLOW. GFS AND NAVGEM SHOW A FINGER OF THE HIGHER WINDS BEING 
INTRODUCED INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE INVEST, BUT FAIL TO ACTUALLY 
WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. JTWC WILL HOLD THIS SYSTEM AS A MEDIUM 
UNTIL THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS PASSED. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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