ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE 
ISLANDS. A 190152Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOW A REGION OF GENERAL CYCLONIC 
TURNING DISRUPTED BY NUMEROUS ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
THAT 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO HIGH 
(25-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27C) SSTS. 
THE PLACEMENT OF INVEST 99W IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
ESTIMATED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. LAND INTERACTION IS 
PLAYING A ROLE IN LIMITING CONSOLIDATION AT THIS TIME. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE INVEST 99W WILL TRANSIT NORTH AND BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED IN APPROXIMATELY 18-24 HOURS OVER THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF 
LAMON BAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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