ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.7N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST 
OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
AND A 172212Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL AN AREA OF BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) ALONG AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS. A 180033Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A LOCALIZED REGION OF 25-30KT WINDS 
CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AS SUPPORTED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (05-10KT) 
VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SSTS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND A MAJORITY OF 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE 
ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWESTERN TRAJECTORY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE 
PHILIPPINES AND WILL CONSOLIDATE TO A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION OVER THE 
NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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