ABPW10 PGTW 160600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZFEB2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 134.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT PALAU REVEAL WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 99W IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW (25-30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH (40-50KT) EASTERLY VWS AND MINIMAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. SST REMAINS CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL HAVE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160032Z METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN