ABPW10 PGTW 150600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 133.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 150400Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH RAGGED ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 150048Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS PREDOMINANTLY 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES WHICH IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE BULK OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 99W TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH (30-40KT) VWS AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST, OFFSET ONLY BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES AND STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INTO A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 118 NM NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 142056Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FULLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 150500Z METAR FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND REVEALS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 17KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE LOW (10-15KT) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. FURTHER DEEPENING IS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN