ABPW10 PGTW 141730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141730Z-150600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2N 
133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION 
WITH RAGGED ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 141259Z ASCAT METOP-B 
BULLSEYE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN 
EDGES OF 99W WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF 25KTS MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR 99W TO 
DEVELOP DUE TO THE HIGH (30-50KT) VWS AND NO UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST 
SYSTEM ESTABLISHED, BUT THERE IS STILL HOPE HELD WITHIN THE WARM (28-
29C) SSTS AND STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURES ON THE 850MB CHART. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES AND 
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP INTO A MEANINGFUL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.5S 136.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 182 NM 
NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 141254Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS A HIGHLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF 15-20KT WINDS WITH SMALL 
POCKETS OF 25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT DUE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P SLOWLY DEEPEN IN A SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER 
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 12P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 36.7S 178.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND 
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1).//
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