ABPW10 PGTW 140600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZFEB2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A PARTIAL 140021Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P SLOWLY DEEPEN IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE RECURVING SOUTHWEST, AND MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 12P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 35.7S 176.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.7S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS), GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A PARTIAL 132158Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND. MOREOVER, A 140400Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CAPE REINGA (93004) INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAD A SMALL PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY LIKE BEHAVIOR BEFORE MAKING A DRAMATIC TURN TO EAST WHILE OVER THE BAY OF PLENTY. THIS CHANGE OF DIRECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. SS 12P CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN HIGH (40-60KT) VWS. SSTS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 20C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SS 12P WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE FILLING AND WEAKENING IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 985 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.// NNNN