ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8S 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
(LLC) CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OFFSET IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 
122353Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEAL 25KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN 
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. INVEST 91P CURRENTLY SITS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT 
AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS. 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91P WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE 
TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 12P) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 32.0S 173.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 35.7S 176.3E, 
APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS), GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY 
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 122037Z ASCAT-C 
IMAGE REVEALS 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE REINGA (93004) INDICATE 
GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES IN HIGH (40-60KT) VWS. SST IS UNFAVORABLE AT 21C. MODEL 
ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE BAROCLINICITY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SS 12P WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 968 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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