ABPW10 PGTW 120600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZFEB2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 137.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED, AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST OFFSET BY STRONG (30-40KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT DANCES AROUND THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA NEAR THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVERLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 12P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.3S 166.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.0S 173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS), GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 120138Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE REVEALS 55-57 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF NORTH ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE REINGA (93004) AND MOKOHINAU (93069) INDICATE STORM-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 50 TO 61 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN HIGH (30-40KT) VWS. SST IS UNFAVORABLE AT 23C. MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE BAROCLINICITY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SS 12P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 55 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 971 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.// NNNN