ABIO10 PGTW 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090400Z-091800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZFEB2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090251ZFEB2023//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09FEB23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0S 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 417 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9S 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A 081517Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE EXTRAPOLATED BY A 
081530Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS, WHICH REVEALED 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND ONLY 10-15 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN AND 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST VALUES (27-28C) AND DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
090330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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