WTXS21 PGTW 090330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 90.5E TO 15.7S 82.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 90.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 469 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A 090001Z 
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVELS, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST VALUES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
UNISON ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100330Z.
//
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