ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZFEB2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08FEB23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.0S 113.1E, APPROXIMATELY 382 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3S 94.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A 
081517Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION ON 
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. POSITION AND INTENSITY 
WERE EXTRAPOLATED BY A 081530Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS, WHICH REVEALED 25-30 
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND ONLY 10-15 KNOTS IN THE 
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST VALUES (27-28C) AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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