ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-
081800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZFEB2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6S 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 99.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM 
SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND 
AN 071520 PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH 25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE REGION 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION. A 061700Z OBSERVATION FROM COCOS 
ISLANDS REVEALS WINDS OF 21 KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A MSLP OF 
1005MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEFINED BY 
DECENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SST'S OFFSET BY 
HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT INVEST 94S 
WILL TAKE LONGER THAN 48 HOURS TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS 
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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