WTPS21 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 154.6E TO 18.1S 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 154.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM 
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP 
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 062325Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT. 
A 070007Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN QUADRANTS. INVEST 99P 
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080600Z.//
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