ABIO10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/060200Z-061800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060121ZFEB2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 97.7E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051903Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060130Z OBSERVATION FROM COCOS ISLANDS 
REVEALS WINDS OF 22 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND WARM 
(29-30C) SST OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
MODELS CONCUR THAT INVEST 94S WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD 
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4S 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MSI AND A 052130Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST AND IMPROVING DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A 
POINT SOURCE ALOFT.  GLOBAL MODELS CONCUR THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE 
ITS RECURVATURE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY ALONG A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 060130) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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