WTXS21 PGTW 060130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 119.3E TO 14.2S 118.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 403NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MSI AND A 052130Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO 
AN OBSCURED AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST AND 
IMPROVING DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE ALOFT.  GLOBAL 
MODELS CONCUR THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE ITS RECURVATURE AND RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY ALONG A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070130Z.
//
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