ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051511Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWED 
SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) 
VWS OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALL MAJOR 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR THAT INVEST 94S WILL 
TRANSIT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE 
SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 
CIRCULATION WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY, REACHING TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051330Z SSMIS 91GHZ SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-
30C) SST OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POINT SOURCE TO 
THE WEST. ALL MAJOR GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR 
THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRANSIT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD 
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS ALSO 
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
INTENSIFY, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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