ABIO10 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/061400Z-061800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 041532Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 041714Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 
CONSOLIDATED OVULAR CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS AND 
WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94S 
WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E APPROXIMATELY 441 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) AN SCATTERED, DISTORGANIED CONVECTION. A 050817Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE TO GOOD EFFECT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SST 
OFFSET BY WEAK BUT DEVELOPING EQUATARWARD OUTFLOW AND A POINT SOURCE TO 
THE WEST. ALL MAJOR GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR 
THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRANSIT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD 
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
INTENSIFY, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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