ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 041532Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 041714Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 
CONSOLIDATED OVULAR CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS AND 
WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94S 
WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 107.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 
117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM NORTHWESTWARD OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041350Z AMSU-B 89GHZ 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS 
AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
97S WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE 
RECURVING SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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