ABIO10 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN REISSUED/040300Z-041800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 446 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
FLARING CONVECTIVE TOWERS PERSISTING SLIGHTLY WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 032135Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
REVEALS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSTRAINED 
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28C) SSTS OFFSETTING MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.1S 108.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 368 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 031502Z 
METOP-B PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WEAK AND BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.// 
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