ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5S 92.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 031216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 061556Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 
WEAK AND BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED TO THE WEST WITH A SWATH OF 20 
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH 
(25-30KT) VWS, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 108.8E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
A 031414Z METOP-C PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WEAK AND BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT 
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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