ABIO10 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/031200Z-031800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 90.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST 
OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
021230Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTIVE 
ELEMENTS OFF TO THE WEST. A PARTIAL 021525Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS 
INDICATIONS OF A TROUGH-LIKE CIRCULATION WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF 
25KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLC, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO HIGH 
(25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, A MODERATE 850MB POSITIVE VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM 
(27-28C) SSTS. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE 
EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN CONTINUES TO INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA 
AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONSOLIDATE ALONG AN EASTWARD 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S 
108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A WEAK AND 
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (15KT) VWS AND WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP 
AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
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