ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.2N 83.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 011250Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD LINES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA 
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-
29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24 AFTER WHICH 
THE INVEST IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.5S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 011243Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC 
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OFF TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION 
DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SSTS. AN ENHANCED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
(MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS INCREASING INSTABILITY 
OVER THE AREA AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG 
A WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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