ABIO10 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/010200Z-011800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 83.3E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 312208Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD LINES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY MODERATE (20-25KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA 
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND 
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24 AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 91.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 010007Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC 
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OFF TO THE SOUTH. A 010111Z 
SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A 20-25KT 
WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL 
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN