ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/311800ZJAN2023-011800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 311303Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS FAIRING 
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC. A 311614Z 
METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, 
A FAVORABLE MJO SIGNAL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE 
WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA WITHIN 12 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 93.0E, APPROXIMATELY 227 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 311415Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC 
WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OFF TO THE WEST. A 311209Z 
SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION OF 20-25KT WINDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY 
WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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