ABIO10 PGTW 310330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN REISSUED/310330ZJAN2023-011800ZFEB2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300251ZJAN2023/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 291.7 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302221Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS 
FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST,
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A FAVORABLE MJO SIGNAL WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SRI LANKA WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM 
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING 
LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGH (25-30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY 
WARM (27-28C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG A WESTERLY 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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