ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 301146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION 
AS INDICATED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET 
BY WARM (28-29C) SST, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA 
WITHIN 48 HOURS. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE 
IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
ADDITIONALLY, THE ONGOING MJO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30JAN23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 32.8S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 300300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 94.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 94.3E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A GRADUALLY 
CONSOLIDATING LLC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS REPORT 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 05KTS WITH SLP AT 1008MB. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO 
HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SST, AND 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL 
RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN 
AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN 
INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE 
AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE 
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS 
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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