ABIO10 PGTW 300630 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/300630Z-301800ZJAN2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJAN2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 300345Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE ONGOING MJO WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 30JAN23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 300300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 94.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN