ABIO10 PGTW 300330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/300330Z-301800ZJAN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZJAN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.9N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 82.9E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM EAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
TO THE WEST OF THE LLC WITH A RAIN BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
MARGINAL WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). ALTHOUGH BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
(MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING 
TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS 
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30JAN23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 32.8S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 300300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.4S 94.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS 
ISLANDS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH BOTH 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION 
(MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING 
TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WARRANTS A CLOSE EYE TO 
MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(1) WITH 08S FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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