WTXS31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 32.8S 51.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 51.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 36.5S 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 41.7S 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7S 53.1E.30JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CHENESO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A RELATIVELY SMALL MASS OF FLARING CONVECTION. TC CHENESO HAS SUCCUMBED TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND HAS LOST ALL SIGNS OF BEING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS IS NOW THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AS TC CHENESO WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 12. IN ADDITION, BY TAU 12, TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE 29/18Z GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS. A PARTIAL 291917Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS 40 KNOTS OF WIND WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 45 KNOT WIND BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE ASCAT-C PASS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO AN 82 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF ALL AGREEABLE DATA. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO SPORADIC MODEL BEHAVIOR IN CONSENSUS, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS DISAGREEING WITH THE TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITH THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL AT TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.// NNNN